who's going to win the American election?

Donna · November 2012

I hope it's Obama!

Roy · November 2012

Whoever gets the most votes in the electrical college. Doh!<br><br>roy<br>

Glyn · November 2012

<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', tahoma, sans-serif; line-height: 20px; text-align: left; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Four years on I also "find this site very compelling/comforting: </span><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-family: 'lucida grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', tahoma, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(99, 127, 68); line-height: 20px; text-align: left; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">http://www.fivethirtyeight.com</a>;"<div><br></div><div>http://www.stroudgreen.org/discussion/1116/us-election/p1</div>;

Donna · November 2012

@Roy, <span style="font-size: 10pt; ">I assume you meant electoral? </span><div><span style="font-size: 10pt; ">@Glyn, thanks.</span></div>

andy · November 2012

@glyn - good find! I think I was a bit drunk during that thread

Arkady · November 2012

What provoked all the Hitchens hatred in that thread? I vaguely recall him doing a commentator part and getting disgruntled that he was repeatedly cut off to flash to some minor election result, but maybe that was the UK elections.<br>

ashman · November 2012

Obama will probably win. The other guy is another bush.

miss annie · November 2012

I have got a horrible feeling about this, Daytime coverage suggests too close for comfort.

andy · November 2012

@arkady - I think the thing that provoked the Hitchens hatred was Christopher Hitchins.<div><br></div><div>@miss annie - It would be a massive shock if it goes against Obama now. </div><div>http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/11/presidential-race-0</div><div><br></div>;

miss annie · November 2012

I have everything crossed for him including my eyes.

Arkady · November 2012

@andy - illuminating, thanks.<br>

Roy · November 2012

@Donna: yes, but it was a Simpsons reference<br>

Coral · November 2012

Anywhere in Finsbury Park showing the election?

Coral · November 2012

Oh - and incase it gets too much and too serious tonight - http://beautifuldecay.com/2012/11/06/presidents-with-boob-faces/

andy · November 2012

@arkady you're very welcome.

kreuzkav · November 2012

Early morning rise. Good to see Obama back in.

checkski · November 2012

<P>Ditto. Mighty relieved, in fact. But what a load of bullshit is now spewing from his mouth...</P> <P>The long, never-ending struggle for democracy v. this charade: sickening.</P>

kreuzkav · November 2012

@ Checkski. I agree. Obama is a bit of a showman and I was more for Hillary Clinton to be the Democrat's presidential candidate back in 2008 as I felt she would have been stronger on policy. However, better than Romney, particularly on foreign policy.

miss annie · November 2012

And women's issues, equal rights for all humans and most other issues.

checkski · November 2012

<P>@Kreuzkav. Maybe - but don't forget the enormous symbolic power of having an African American president. In this respect, they have come a long way, since slavery.</P> <P>@miss annie. I think you vastly overrate his achievements. On equal rights, I was horrified to see him connive at murder. Even bin Laden had the right to a trial. On the credit side, he attempted to establish a long-overdue health service (just as our government is in the process of dismantling ours). Will Obama make more progress in this field, in his second term? I hope so.</P>

kreuzkav · November 2012

Yes Checksi, his symbolic power is important. Amazing in a country that had state sanctioned segregation fifty years ago.

Detritus · November 2012

<p>I just feel better knowing that a democrat is in the White House and not a republican, regardless of skin colour the question has to be asked why would anyone vote for a republican I do not understand the way they look at the world.</p><p>4 years ago it felt like the world felt safer after his win, and now it feels better knowing that the USA have not taken a backward step.</p><p>And I agree with you Kreuzkav 50 years ago he would not have been allowed to drink at a white only fountain, use a white only restroom and would have run the gauntlet of maybe being lynched just because the colour of his skin.</p><p> </p>

Detritus · November 2012

<p>Oooops, posted in wrong name. Miss A</p>

miss annie · November 2012

<p>I don't overrate his achievements, he is flawed, the country is flawed and the sysytem is flawed. As are all leaders, countries and systems. I think that the Bin Laden situation would only ever have had one outcome, whichever force had found him. </p><p>However, the person that believes that any citizen should have the right the walk down the street holding the hand of the person they love without fear is the one I'd vote for.</p>

yagamuffin · November 2012

<font face="Arial, Verdana" size="2">By the sounds of it, it's going to become harder and harder for the Republicans to ever win again. As the black and Hispanic population increases so there core uneducated white voter base gets outnumbered. They are going to need a strong leader to kick the Tea Party in to touch and drag the party back towards the centre - much like Dave Cameron did here(!)</font>

ADGS · November 2012

Romney's record as governor suggested the sort of caring conservative that Cameron posed as being when in opposition - but the primaries, and the need to pander to the party base (particularly Tea Party nutjobs), meant he had to show his true colours (if they were even his true colours) before he got in. And as such, he didn't get in.

andy · November 2012

@yagamuffin don't you believe it. US political parties are diverse, good at changing direction and they like winning. The ragbag of candidates in this election was in part down to the fact that some of the big names didn't want to run against Obama. Strong candidates rarely go up against incumbent presidents. This was a factor in Clinton's first election. He was a bit of an unknown before the election, but none of the big names in the Democratic party wanted to take Bush after he had won the Gulf War, so the field was pretty weak.<div><br></div><div>Look out for either Rubio or Christie (or even a Christie/Rubio joint ticket) against Hillary in 2016.</div>

Arkady · November 2012

@andy - Quite so. I also think this ‘new ethnic Democratic majority’ business is being overplayed. Back in the GW Bush era there was a lot of press about how ‘Hispanics’ were increasingly voting Republican. If the economic boundaries between ethnicities continue to break down, and ethnic boundaries themselves continue to blur with intermarriage, the tribal voting will decrease. We’re seeing this in the UK with the Pakistani community, which no longer votes Labour en bloc as it once did.<br><br>Conversely, the ‘poor uneducated white working class’ vote is now identified with the Republicans, but this was not always so, and may not be so in the future.<br>

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