So who is winning in Stroud Green?

maclondon

With one week left before the General Election, I am not sure what the result around here will be though I am sticking to my view that Labour will just speak through and form the next Government (with other party support in some form). So will Lynne speak through or is she toast? Arcady as our local political expert, what do you think?

Arkady

What do you mean by 'speak through'? It will be close. Both parties are throwing a lot at it. Featherstone has a strong incumbency factor, but the swing will be hard to resist. The biggest determining factor may be how many votes go to the Greens, and in what proportion those votes come from the two main contenders. The Green candidate received the biggest cheers at the hustings.

Sutent

Jeremy CORBYN will win in Islington North. He is a very good MP. Good too see the greens are doing well. They have the best anti-austetity evidenced based economic policy. The others bow down to the banks too much

maclondon

Squeak through of course! I actually think there is a strong 'silent LibDem' vote particularly where the incumbent MP is locally popular like Lynne. The key will be whether there is a lot of tactical voting by people trying to keep out the Tories or Labour.

NorthNineteen

Brave prediction Sutent....<div><br></div><div>I met the Con candidate for Islington North last weekend, he was quite nice.  Lives in N19 too!</div>

NorthNineteen

For what's its worth, I think Lab will win Hornsey and Wood Green with a very small majority but it wouldn't surprise me if it only lasts one term - the area feels like it is trending away from Labour.

krappyrubsnif

Good to see an all-purpose political thread on this site.  I think Labour will just snitch it from the LibDems,  It's fun living in a swing seat - I've had both Labour and Liberal candidates, MPs and government ministers in my house, makes you feel you can make a difference.

conformable_kate

Fairly solid prediction from Sutent, actually - it would be a major surprise if Jeremy Corbyn didn't hold North Islington ... In fact I've been getting emails from 38 Degrees suggesting a vote swap - people who live in sewn-up consitutencies where one vote more or less doesn't make a difference are invited to do a virtual swap with someone in a swing constituency. I find this vaguely perturbing, though I know at least one person who has signed up for it!

Duncan

Maybe they could partner with Scottish Tories who want to keep the Nationalists out?<br><br>

Ali

<p>Council Election results  give a pretty big hint.</p><p>Labour minority govenment with possible LibDem coalition or support.  Cleggers decaptiated and Vince Cable Deputy PM </p>

checkski

I suppose it is vaguely peturbing, Mabel, but since we haven't got PR...<div><br></div><div>I have offered the trade-off you describe to a friend who might prefer CW to LF, but who has decided to vote Green. Jeremy is surely home and dry, so I could cast her Green vote in Islington without either of us being any worse off, and she might agree with me re anything-to-keep-the-Tories-out..</div><div><br></div><div>We'll see. She might find that sort of deal perturbing. Most perturbing of all,though,  for me, would be to have Cameron and co back again.</div>

Arkady

Vince for Chancellor, shurley.

krappyrubsnif

Stop calling me Shurely

conformable_kate

Better than being called Mabel, shirley.

Mirandola

I knew I picked a bad time to give up alcohol. 

maclondon

i am not so sure that the council elections do tell the story. the general election will have a much higher turnout and popular, incumbent MPs tend to hold onto far more votes than the national polls suggest. Complicating matters, with so much disillusionment around it can be unpredictable but i think a strong factor this year will be who do you not want to win. As for the Haringey local elections last year, while Labour won a number of seats, the margins were quite small - even our fair Arkady was not far off becoming councillor! the boards around Stroud Green would suggest Labour but...

conformable_kate

Dunns' bakery in Crouch End has baked party-coloured buns and is keeping a tally of how many sell for each party. I can see this might lead serious loyalists to go in and buy up dozens of cakes to keep theirs in the lead. At present Labour leads, but I wouldn't swear by it.  (But who are the 15 UKIP voters in Crouch End, I ask myself?)

marko

@MacLondon: They don't; the thoroughly rotten borough of Haringey hasn't seen a change of administration since 1965 - when it was created.  And it shows. 

Arkady

This is all getting rather interesting: http://www.itv.com/news/london/2015-05-04/claims-election-candidate-engaged-in-lies-and-smears/

Mirandola

Ministers have collective responsibility. Don't see what the kerfuffle is about. Not perfect, but no worse than my local libdem (who I am sure is a good person)* describing himself as an 'independent' on front page of leaflet. *I am not being ironic. All the councillors and ppcs I've met have been good people.

Mirandola

Plus, it is a little unfortunate to call it a 'smear' when someone claims you were a minister in a gov't you supported.

Arkady

They do, though it has been accepted that the doctrine of Collective Responsibility has been somewhat relaxed under the coalition, and understandably so. But regardless, that's not the point. Ministers are primarily responsible for their own briefings, which is why when they make a mistake they get sacked, rather than the whole cabinet resigning. <div><br></div><div>It is a lie to say that Featherstone was responsible for that brief at that time. Not an exaggeration, not a half-truth, not misrepresentation - a lie.  One that Catherine West made before - at Stroud Green hustings no less - and was publicly corrected on at the time. The leaflet doesn't say that the cabinet was collectively responsible, it says she was. This is way, way over the line. It's not a question of party politics, but of personal and political integrity.<div><br></div><div>The truth in this is demonstrated by the fact that Labour have agreed to publicly retract the statement and send leaflets to everyone that received the slur.</div></div>

Mirandola

Hmmm. Still don't see how it's a slur or a smear. If policy was so abhorrent to her she had the option of resigning. If not, she has to own it. Still, good to see it corrected and may the best woman win.

NorthNineteen

Labour have printed and are currently distributing correction leaflets - obviously desperate to avoid any potential liable action (which Lynne would be well in her right to do).  Silly and completely unnecessary error from Labour, to hear she was corrected at the hustings makes it even worse.

maclondon

So the latest forecast shows Hornsey as a dead heat (Election Forecast which is at http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html). From the look of the canvassers for both Labour and LibDem they do not know who is going to win! the controversy over the vans is not helping Labour - it is unfair to portray your opponent on a very emotive issue (effectively saying she sanctioned their use) when she was not even in the Home Office at the time. Nationally, the media speculation that the Tory surge was finally happening has stopped given that all the polls have come back to a dead heat - my guess is still Lynne to hold on with. labour just sneaking it with the help of his progressive friends (Islington North is never going to the change!).

NorthNineteen

I'd like to add my comment about Corbyn keeping his seat being a brave prediction was sarcasm (poorly executed) - Islington N is about the safest Lab seat in London.

conformable_kate

Sarcasm - famously fails to come across electronically, along with irony and all related modes - but sorry to have been cloth-eared!

Papa

The one thing I know about Catherine West is that when she was Islington Council leader and one of our local councillors she did not cover herself in glory when the council was <span style="font-size: 10pt;">involved in a very biased move to block the streets in the Corbyn / Thorpedale area.</span><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(Islington's own consultation document used the clearly emotive term 'rat run' to describe what by most people's observations were quiet streets and it failed to back up any claims with data and methodology.)</span></div><div><br></div><div>I contacted Catherine West for help, as many residents were unhappy about something that seemed completely illogical and would blight those on neighbouring roads. S<span style="font-size: 10pt;">he repeatedly failed to respond to requests to make the road survey data and methodology that supposedly backed up the plan public.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Her fellow local councillors Richard Watts and Jean Kaseki also failed to help.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Having voted for them, I found this hugely disapppointing. Personally, I definitely wouldn't give any of them a vote of mine again, whatever election they were standing in.</span></div>

Fin

<p>The "van controversy" made The Standard last night.</p><p><a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/north-london-lib-dem-lynne-featherstone-accuses-opponent-of-lies-and-desperate-smears-over-letters-posted-to-constituents-10224793.html">http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/north-london-lib-dem-lynne-featherstone-accuses-opponent-of-lies-and-desperate-smears-over-letters-posted-to-constituents-10224793.html</a></p><p>Very nasty trick. This topic was raised at a hustings I went to a good two weeks ago and Lynne Featherstone corrected the allegation then. So Labour must have known it was an incorrect allegation before they sent out the leaflets. Horrible.</p>

Glyn

Personally, tactical voting is the only thing that's going to determine which box I put my cross in.  After Thursday, it's likely that M.P.s will have to line up behind either Labour or the Tories to determine which will be in a minority or coalition government.  After 2010, there's no way I can vote Lib Dem again, knowing that it could help to keep the Tories in power, especially when it is likely to come down to a handful of crucial seats.

Ali

<p>I guess who ever the LibDem Minister  who was at the time of the "van" must have been "asleep at the  wheel to let it happen in the first  place.</p><p> If you have not yet made your mind up  you might find it useful to have a look at Lynnes voting record in Parliament.</p><p>Quite revealing what was voted against.</p><p>This  provides some further  background</p><p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynne_Featherstone">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynne_Featherstone</a></p><p>Didn't know about the "progesterex" question in the  House until I just read this.</p><p>There is no   a voting record in Parliament for Catherine  so that can't be compared and theer is no Wiki page.</p><p>There is this but it will be biased so probably not that objective</p><p><a href="http://www.catherinewest.org.uk/about-me/">http://www.catherinewest.org.uk/about-me/</a></p><p> </p><p>The LibDems lost me because  they have "danced with the devil" over the  past 5 years and Lynne lost me because   Leverson</p><p> </p><p> </p>