Election Day Thread

andy

bless him. i remain very fond of him. bonkers though

sophie

that man outside the hospital where farage is has the worst job of the night. and his earpiece isn't even working. poor bloke.

andy

Reports suggests Greens might win a seat in Brighton

Liz

Joan Collins appears to be at the BBC election boat party. What???

andy

Is it too late to get a taxi down there? Simon Schama looks hammered, I'm sure we could blag our way in.

Ian

Andy - Becky can drive us there, she's sober. She might stand out a bit though, what with being sober.

andy

We'll never get in if one of us is sober.

becky

Don't worry about me. I'll just wait in the car and listen to the radio while you guys go in and enjoy yourselves for a few hours.

Liz

Now the BBC appear to be paying for a HELICOPTER to film the top of David Cameron's car driving from his house to get the results. Good God.

andy

Ian and I can't get into a party like that without any girls

andy

Big hold in Tooting for Sadiq Khan.

Ian

It's an interesting night, no mistake.

Cat

These results are depressing me. I know we need a change but not the way it's going, can't believe Lib Dems are losing seats.

ShaunG

Despite my best intentions I couldn't stay up to watch. It was the appalling celeb boat party that did for me - what on earth were the BBC thinking? Pretty much the messiest outcome you could get. On the plus side, Caroline Lucas, and Esther Rantzen's pitiful showing in Luton.

yagamuffin

What the hell happened there?
Islington North had a 3.3% swing from Lib Dem to Labour!
So either there were protest votes last time that have gone back to Labour or a number of scared Lib Dem voters who would rather see Labour stay than let the Tories sneak in.
To say I am disappointed would be a massive understatement. :(

andy

No-one but Labour campaigned in Islington North and the Lib Dem challenger was useless. Also, people like Corbyn. The more amazing result was Islington South, which also swung to Labour. The LDs fought hard for that one.

andy

Dr Rohen Kapur only got 91 votes after all his posts on here.

nick_m

Gutted for the lib dems. How can they make a break through? Surely they can't do a deal with the tories? Great news for greens in Brighton though; if I ever left SG it would be for there! Lib Dems getting 23% of the vote and only 8% of the seats is still a disaster for the electoral system though. Tories banging on about first past the post delivering a strong, singular mandate is massively undermined. We need more experience of coalitions now, or we get this turmoil. If the LDs pact with the tories, we'll never get PR. But the alternative, a coalition with Labour and the nationalists, is also surely unworkable? The labour grandees are seriously flirting with the LDs though; Hain was positively schmoozing this morning… A recall election on the cards? A grand coalition to sort out the structural deficit? A new electoral system? All my A-level politics theories are becoming reality!

nick_m

good swing to lynne for the win though!

yagamuffin

It's not all over yet.
Labour/Lib Dems have a combined total of 303 seats with 29 results still to come.
They could conceivably form a majority coalition government.

Arkady

What a mess. Cameron's trying to persuade the Lib Dems into full coalition now to outbid Brown. I have no idea what to think. I need some sleep.

Siolae

Billy Bragg just posted this on facebook:

Billy Bragg Am I right to feel pleased that the people have ignored the fear-mongering of the Tory press and voted for a hung parliament? Lets not let Murdoch & Co bully us into a minority Tory adminstration over the weekend. A coalition of reformist pressure groups is calling for mass demonstrations tomorrow to put pressure on the LibDems to hold out for PR while the horses are being traded behind closed doors. I will be attending the event in Trafalgar Square at 2pm. Wear something purple - the colour of the franchise - and come out onto the streets across the country to push for a reform parliament. Details below
Take Back Parliament
www.takebackparliament.com
This Parliament does not represent us. We demand fair votes now. There must never again be an election under this broken system.

andy

Not a bad set of predictions: 299 seems pretty close to the mark. **I think Corbyn and Lynne will get back in, Tories largest party (c.299 seats), but no overall majority, despite the best efforts of The Sun.** For my next trick, I will predict what happens next. After some faffing around, Clegg will refuse the formal offer of coalition. Cameron will want to offer more (potentially around electoral reform) but his party won't let him. Without a serious offer around electoral reform, it's not worth Clegg doing a deal, so he'll turn it down. Cameron will paint this as anti-patriotic, suggesting that it's not right to jeopardise strong government over an issue most people don't care about. Clegg, like Admiral Ackbar, will recognise this as the trap that it is. Cameron will then lead as a minority government and probably get support from the Lib Dems to pass a budget and some limited bits and pieces of legislation. The phrase 'confidence and supply' will enter everyone's vocabulary in the same way 'metatarsal' once did. There will be another election within 6 months, in which time the Labour party will have had its nervous breakdown, got rid of Brown and fight a much more robust campaign. Then it all happens again, with the result largely determined by what's happened in the Eurozone and the bond markets.

ADGS

I think that's a fairly likely scenario, except I can also see an 'everyone but the Tories' coalition as a possibility once Clegg has given Cameron the obligatory first chance - the Green and the Celtic Nationalists would presumably also be all for any deal which implemented PR.

becky

I agree with your predictions Andy. This might just turn out to be the perfect Labour result. They need some time out of power to replace with leader (too messy to do whilst Brown are prime minister) and stand back from policies to reflect on what hasn't quite worked over the past 13 years.

andy

Quite - that's why an 'everyone-but-the-Tories' coalition isn't that attractive if you're Labour. You know it's very likely that there's going to be another election quite soon, you get to clean house and in any case, it's going to be a horrible 6 months to be in power.

Arkady

It may come down to how much Labour are willing to offer Clegg now. They've offered electoral reform, if they can move towards a proportional system and Brown's head then they might pull it off. Big ifs. This protest on Saturday has been a few weeks in the making, if it turns out to be big that might be significant. I'll be there. I won't miss Lembit Opik. Sorry about Susan Kramer though. A

nick_m

I love the idea of an 'everyone but the tories' coalition, but think the reality just won't work. The nationalists will demand too much. For the lib dems to be within touching distance of electotral reform, something they've had central to their manifesto for years, is enormously tantalizing. But, the ever-pragmatic, modern politician in Clegg will probably see them not holding out for it. Which would be a massive shame.

nick_m

it is a discredited system that sees a party's % of the vote go up, whilst it loses seats: www.voteforachange.co.uk

ShaunG

Any option involving Brown being replaced whilst Labour retain power will be easily attacked by the Tories as an undemocratic stitch-up producing a Prime Minister that no one voted for. I think many would side with the Tories on that, so I just can't see a Lab/Lib deal working. Minority Conservative administration for me, with Cameron getting to choose when to go for a second election. 1974 again, isn't it?