Finsbury Park Station/City North Development

Arkady · April 2015

I don't think it should be a commodity, and have given no indication to the contrary. I'd ban second homes altogether.

graeme · April 2015

But if it's an issue of supply and demand, it's a commodity. And it will continue to be a commodity, as long as we pretend that that lever ("build more") can somehow be used to get us out of this. I don't see affordability improving, despite all the building work going on. <div><br></div>

Robby1 · April 2015

Many thanks Arkady for your help.

JoeV · April 2015

<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">There are many markets within the property sector. Traditionally, in a rising property market, as sales prices go up, rental prices usually go down because more people are moving out of the rental sector into owning their own homes, thus decreasing the demand for rental properties.</span><div style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">When I arrived in the UK, this is what I experienced. But today, sales prices are going up <span style="font-style: italic;">and</span> rental prices are spiraling as well. What's different? </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">The only thing I can think of is the boom in the buy-to-let market. Investors looking for secure vehicles for a return on their cash are literally sucking the life from London. People who want to buy-to-live can't compete with buy-to-let investors who are given more favourable mortgage terms as well as tax advantages, and those buyers who just want a place to live, especially first-timers, are forced (I'll argue trapped) in the private rental sector.<br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">I'll allow that demand is outstripping supply, even with the level of building that has taken place in the past 10 years. I go all over,every single area in London has seen tremendous change. But even if more housing is built (and I think it should be), if nothing is done to level the playing field between buy-to-live and buy-to-let and make it fairer to everyone who wants to buy, nothing will change.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial, Verdana;"><br></span></div>

Mirandola · April 2015

I don't have any answers. but here is one of my favourite graphs:<div><div><img src="http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44141000/gif/_44141960_house_building_gra416.gif"><br><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></div>

kreuzkav · April 2015

Leaving aside council's building new housing, existing housing could be bought out by housing associations or other housing groups. That's what most Housing Association housing is at the moment; terraced housing sometimes refurbished or converted into flats but often just bought out from the private sector and let at social rents. Sadly their housing stock is diminishing due to cutbacks in grants and other measures. <div><br></div><div>I was talking to someone the other day about the cost to a building firm to construct a new house. He told me that with all the current requirements (health and safety, insulation, special wiring) the firm only makes a small profit of 10-15 per cent and that can be swallowed up if things go wrong. I think the current standards are important though.</div><div><br></div><div>The downside would be there would be a bigger squeeze on private stock and this might force up private rents. </div>

Papa · April 2015

JoeV - but you are talking about London when you say house prices and rents spiralled at the same time.<div><br><div>It's not true for the rest of the UK - they are very different markets, largely because of the colossal demand in London. </div><div><br></div><div>Flats don't rent in a day most other places, properties can sit empty for months while tenants are being found, prices get dropped to attract them, people take on long-term tenancies and do more to improve properties.<br><div><br></div><div>Go outside of the London and South East bubble and rents haven't moved as much.</div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px;">In fact, there were some astonishing 'bargain' places to rent in Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Cardiff etc after the financial crisis because a load of buy-to-let landlords who bought new build flats in the boom got seriously burnt.</span><br></div><div><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px;">(That's one part of the market where prices really did fall hard)</span></div><div><br></div><div>That's a bit different now in some hotspots like Manchester etc. but the figures don't show rents spiralling across the UK. </div><div><br></div><div>An important thing to remember about buy-to-let is that those individual landlords have filled the gap in the rental market. The large-scale social / public sector and institutional landlords have been ducking out of the game. Many sold up to those buy-to-let investors. They show little appetite for getting back in.</div><div><br></div><div>It's difficult to hold small landlords responsible for the assured shorthold tenancy regime that they must operate in. Most would be in breach of their mortgage if they offered a longer-term tenancy - that's changing a little but only slowly.</div><div><br></div><div>I think tenants need better rights - things are improving. But I don't think individual buy-to-let landlords are to blame for the UK's current housing woes.</div><div><br></div></div></div><div>If you want the other side of the argument though - the anti buy-to-let one - <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/may/23/buy-to-let-landlords-disaster-economy">Phillip Inman puts it well here</a></div>

miss annie · April 2015

Going back to an earlier comment, anyone who thinks that it's possible to 'opt for' renting social housing instead of private rental is insane! No London council will put you on their list because of financial hardship! Once you are renting privately it is almost impossible to get on the council's (5yr minimum), waiting list unless you are in danger, or have children and are about to be homeless, or have a serious health condition. Even then the application process to join the list is designed to divert people to refuges, hostels etc. And to join a housing association waiting list (most of which are closed in London), you have to be referred from the local council's list. Private rental is the only option if you aren't fortunate enough to earn shed loads of cash or have relatives give you the money to buy somewhere.

JoeV · April 2015

@PapaL I take your point but I don't think we'll see eye-to-eye on this. I don't see buy-to-let investors solely as filling a gap in the market. They are dominating the market and forcing many people into the private rental market when in normal circumstances those same people would be buying those same properties. Average people simply can't compete with an investor. <span style="font-size: 10pt;">Miss Annie is right, there really are limited option, at least in the London/southeast.</span><div><br></div><div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;">What I don't understand, with sales prices as high as they are why isn't there the hysteria of a property bubble like there was pre- and post-Credit Crunch? </span><br></div></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt;">I would like to see more protections for tenants. There have been proposals but absolutely nothing has been enacted.</span></div>

Papa · April 2015

We probably won't see eye-to-eye on it. I suspect I'm much more of a capitalist free-market person than you are.<div><br></div><div>They aren't really dominating the market though. There are an estimated 1.4m buy-to-let landlords and 22m households.</div><div><br></div><div>And it's not that easy to become one. </div><div><br></div><div>To get a mortgage they need rent to cover 125% of mortgage interest payments and to put down a deposit of 25%.</div><div>They also pay higher mortgage rates.</div><div><br></div><div>I don't think the investment stacks up round here anymore.</div><div><br></div><div>A £400k flat round here would rent for about £1,500 a month.</div><div><br></div><div>The numbers stack up on that if you can get a 4% mortgage: monthly payments £1,000, rent is 150% of mortgage, yield is 4.5%</div><div><br></div><div>But to become that buy-to-let landlord you'd need £100k as a deposit. That's a lot of money.</div><div><br></div><div>Then you have to take into account all your costs, say £250 per month for agents' fees, maintenance etc, - so the yield starts dropping. At £1,250 net it's 3.75%.</div><div><br></div><div>You will then probably pay 40 per cent tax on the £250 profit above the mortgage interest, so you are left with £150 profit per month.</div><div><br></div><div>So each year your after tax income return is £1,800, which on the £100k you invested is 1.8%.</div><div><br></div><div>Considering you are putting a huge sum of capital at risk that's not really a great return above the best easy access cash Isa rate of 1.5%.</div><div><br></div><div>So really you are banking on house prices going up and capital gains for your return. Problem is houses are just about as expensive as they have ever been against wages and London looks pretty bubbly.</div><div><br></div><div>Get caught on the wrong end of that and it will be painful.</div><div><br></div><div>Of course, house prices might keep going up and you make a nice leveraged gain, but if they take a tumble you could be down £50k in a year's time.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div>

graeme · April 2015

How many BTL households are there Papa L? There are 4.9million. Let's not pretend they are a minority holder of housing stock in the UK. And you're never down on property unless you have to get out. And if you need to, you can just pretend it's your main address for six months and avoid CGT. <div><br></div><div>For @Papa L Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/buy-to-let/11176988/1996-the-birth-of-buy-to-let-Britain-in-numbers.html</div><div><br></div>;

maclondon · April 2015

i agree with Graeme, the buy to let investors does distort the market particularly in London, forcing up prices for others - you could even say that buy to let is a much bigger factor than the foreign oligarchs in the London market. the bigger problem, is the issue about why councils and housing associations are not allowed to invest in additio al social housing. As Mirandola suggests with the graph, private sector building rates have not changed much for over 50 years but public sector rates have dropped - Grant Shapps and co continue to ignore this at their peril. back to the question of Finsbury Park station, lets hope the parties can sort something out otherwise, by 2020 we will have crowded, decript station which will have station closures throughout the morning peak.

trainspotter · April 2015

Does anyone have any update on the station closure works? Is it definitely all off for the foreseeable future? Does that include the linking up of the lines with Thameslink, or is that separate?

Arkady · April 2015

Thameslink is entirely separate. City North say that the delay is due to them still hammering out the details with their contractors, and so not wanting to close the entrance prematurely. I have heard an unsubstantiated rumour of an estimated 12-week delay.

Sutent · April 2015

@trainspotter. The Thameslink is a separate issue to the underground. I was speaking someone who works for Southern. As southern, Southeastern, and First capital connect are all merging as Govia we could see carriages of the other netrworks be used on the Cambridge to Brighton line. How exciting would that be. However in stations where first capital connect, south eastern and southern share stations like East Croydon or Tulse hill for example will cause problems for passengers who get on trains based on the colour of the carriages.

Arkady · April 2015

I doubt we will see that interim carriage solution north of King's Cross. They will go straight for the new Siemens Desiro (Class 700s) which are due to start arriving at the the Hornsey Depot next year. And those trains will come with their own new carriages.

Papa · April 2015

@graeme - where does the 4.9m figure from? The English Housing Survey puts private rented households at 4.4m but that isn't all buy-to-let landlords, it includes businesses and institutions that own property.<div><br></div><div>The English Housing Survey shows 63% owner occupiers, 19% private rented and 17% social rented.</div><div><br></div><div>I'm pretty sure BTL landlords therefore are a minority, I guess you mean an insignificant minority. </div><div><br></div><div>I do think they distort the market, just not quite as much as is being suggested.</div><div><div><br></div><div>You're never down on any investment unless you need to get out but what happens if you do need to get out?<div><br></div><div>My point is simply that buy-to-let where we live doesn't look like a great investment opportunity right now, unless you believe house prices will keep rocketing. The fact that they are at very high valuation levels dramatically reduces the chances of that happening.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></div>

NorthNineteen · April 2015

I had heard July being mentioned for when works may start so in line with what Arkady said above. The issue was around the contractors but also City North and TfL/Network Rail couldn't agree terms on the construction which may or may not be related to the choice (change?) of contractor.<br>

markpack · April 2015

Any news on whether it's a 12 week delay as in the station entrance closure will then last for the same period of time, just starting 12 weeks later, or whether the closure may end up being for a shorter period?

NorthNineteen · April 2015

Who knows? Assume a 12 week delay and any quicker is a win?<div><br></div><div>Nice pic in the ES mark</div>

Arkady · April 2015

<font face="Arial, Verdana"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal;">I seem to have got my ugly mug in the Tribune, next to the Mango Man.</span></font><div style="font-family: Arial, Verdana; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"><br></div><div><font face="Arial, Verdana"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: normal;">http://www.islingtontribune.com/news/2015/apr/finsbury-park-tube-exit-closure-put-‘-hold’-just-three-days-entrance-was-due-shut</span></font><br></div>

Sutent · April 2015

@Arkady - where was that photo taken? I was dissapointed to see it wasn't on an TFL train

Arkady · April 2015

Barcelona

NorthNineteen · April 2015

That was a shock as your face filled my entire computer screen!<br>

Chris H · April 2015

We've recently moved near the station, and the noise generated by the workmen from 11.30pm until roughly 3am five nights a week is intolerable, quite frankly. Does anyone know the best body to complain to - is it TFL? Islington council? Or are our hands completely tied? We were hoping that the station entrance closing would improve matters, but now we're looking at a period of next-to-no sleep for the next three months at least...<br><br>Any advice would be gratefully accepted.<br>

NorthNineteen · April 2015

Try the council first - I assume it is definitely related to the station rather than work being undertaken by City North? If the latter then they should have a public engagement phone number to report disturbance<br>

Jennymc99 · April 2015

I have the same problem re the late night noise - happy to join the formal complaints wagon if only I could find someone to complain to - currently this is network rail on twitter which gets me nowhere!<br>

NorthNineteen · April 2015

<font face="Arial, Verdana"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: normal;">http://www.islington.gov.uk/services/parks-environment/noise/Pages/default.aspx</span></font><div><font face="Arial, Verdana"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: normal;"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="Arial, Verdana"><span style="font-size: 13.3333330154419px; line-height: normal;">As a start - you need to work out who the noise is. Even go out and ask if they are contractors for TfL or Network Rail, then ask who the duty manager is and work your way up that way.</span></font></div>

Donna · April 2015

Can anyone find out how much TFL and other parties (eg Park Theatre) spent in terms of time and money on all the announcements/leaflets/posters regarding the closure of Wells Terrace?<div>I really really hope you are right Ben. <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“Maybe this time when things get going again Islington Council can put pressure on to make sure the work doesn’t take three years. The developers should be forced to prioritise the new station entrance rather than their profits.”</span><br><div>MADNESS</div></div>

NorthNineteen · April 2015

Yes, anyone can find out - through an FOI.

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