Article 50

Arkady

Quite. And my favourite thing about that is that in our weakness they will be able to dictate trade terms to us that will be far worse than anything we agreed to as part of the Single Market - so much for a gain in sovereignty. Any new US trade deal will make TTIP look like Attleeite protectionism.

Sutent

"America First, Amierca First, America First". Trumps going to grab us by the pussy Don't forget we have also sucking up to the Chinese for ages. Lost of them are living round here studying at University of Arts. Modi wants same visa access for the Indians too

grenners

I agree with most of that. Save for the assumption that any trade deal we do with another non eu country will not be good for us. The jury is out on that. Of course we do not have to sign up to any deal. I think the assumption that the EU can do a better job of running trade for us is not right. They will be our deals and we can cancel them and renegotiate them a lot easier than the EU.

grenners

Yes we do look very desperate running around begging and it is a major worry that it undermines our negotiating stance. However, there may be countries who have tried unsuccessfully to tap into the EU who now see an opportunity.

Arkady

"of course we don't have to sign up to any deal'" Well yes and no. Any trade not undertaken within the bounds of a formal trade agreement is smuggling. If we fall back on the WTO rules that means tariffs and non-tariff barriers - far worse than our current arrangements. To improve on the WTO rules we will need to negotiate new trade deals, which will take a long time in a period in which we will desperate to conclude them. We have no trade negotiators, the countries that we seek to make deals with have decades of experience and hold most of the cards. @IanDunt';s book is good on this. For instance any comprehensive free trade deal with the US will require us to lower our standards on things like GM, acid-washing of carcasses, use of growth hormones in animals, TTIP-style commercial courts, the lot. That won't be a gain in sovereignty, it will be a loss of it. The Eastern European states have the choice of pooling some sovereignty at a European level or losing their sovereignty to Russia. We have a choice of pooling our sovereignty at a European level or losing much of it to larger, aggressive trade powers like the US. There is no such thing as pure state sovereignty. That was largely true even in the nineteenth century. It's a particularly destructive illusion now.

Ali

Reading in Private Eye that bright Civil Servants are avoiding being moved in the Brexit and Trade Ministries. They are ending up with less experienced people. Not good

Ali

Trump has been invited to a state visit
Poor Brenda having yp pit IP with him although Phil might make some rude comments

Ali

Can't believe it just Mrs May walking out of the Whitehouse holding hands!

grenners

It's a special relationship.

Ali

Maybe he has mixed up Theressa May with Teresa May?

grenners

I think she's doing that so he can't grab her pussy.......until later in private.

krappyrubsnif

I havent seen this yet (late to Ch 4 news) but preparing to vomit

miss annie

I am going to make the biggest, most offensive banner you've ever seen, stand outside Buckingham Palace with it when Trump's staying there and break the rule of a lifetime by chanting the C word and the top of my voice for the entire duration of his visit. Anyone fancy joining me?

maclondon

And of course any trade deal we get with the USA will either be similar to what we already have through the EU or will include relaxation of regulations like environmental or safety rules - I am NOT looking forward to it. It seems like a lot of work for either little benefit or something far worse.

Ali

Leaving the single market could reduce trade with the EU by 30%. A desperate deal (as we will be desperate by that stage) with the US might boost trade by 2%.

Why are we punching ourselves in the face ?

Ali

Get your marching shoes out.

25th March there is planned the biggest protest march seen in London in modern times. It won't stop article 50 but will show the strength of feeling against it. Target of at least 750000.

If you care about this you need to be there!

TheMimsy

@ Miss Annie Count me in!

HolbornFox

@Ali in what sectors will trade drop by 30%?

That is not a reactionary comment, just a question.

My business trades with EU countries and will not be affected.

grenners

Scare tactics to get people to demonstrate.

Ali

Financial and Legal Services is one. It all depends on how services trade restrictiveness pans out in the negotiations. You can read about the effects via several models around this produced by London First. It is abit technical but it is here http://londonfirst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Leaving-the-EU-impact-on-trade-June-2016.pdf These are also quite interesting: http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/report/2014/economic-consequences-leaving-eu researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/LLN-2016.../LLN-2016-0063.pdf There are also a large numbers of low value add manufacturing business in the UK (about 45% of manufacturing I think) that are very sensitive to price so when interest rates and costs go up its goodbye to lots of them. Interest rate increases to try and bare down on Inflation will also hit a lot of folks with mortgages. They will either be foreclosed on or will stop spending which in turn will negatively multiply its way through the economy as well. I don't know if anyone on here who works in retail has noticed much yet? What industry a you in Mr Fox, high added value knowledge based ? Sorry to be so gloomy but it is better to understand what is coming than not.

miss annie

Very high end fashion and good department stores (Selfridges, Liberty, Fortnums etc) are absolutely thriving - every time the pound dips the wealthy Chinese, Russian, Middle Eastern and American visitors splash out like crazy. Britain's a bargain for them.

Bottom end - Primark for example, also doing well as home grown lower income customers feeling the pinch, and young people and students are spending any spare cash there. Tourists absolutely love it too, especially Middle Eastern customers.

It's the mid range retail that is struggling - John Lewis, Debenhams, M&S. Their customers are worried about the coming rise in interest rates on mortgages on their homes and their previously bargainous buy to let investments. credit cards and so on.

The area of retail I work in is doing well at the moment. Especially our shops in areas where overseas, outside of EU, tourism is plentiful. Our stock is mostly in the UK.

UK publishing isn't forecasting a drop at the moment - Most books are printed in the UK, some in China and most paper is made outside the EU.

I don't have any info on food retail. I imagine some retailers are struggling.

HolbornFox

I work in legal services and am not affected.

Most of the massive corporate law firms are American anyway and most of the boutique ones cater to Russian money.

The other end of the market has been decimated by legal aid cuts already.

Mimsy

@therattle ...is that why African Americans are attacking white people, for being white, in Chicago and elsewhere? It is happening. Is that why African Americans are dragging white people out of their cars yelling "he's a Trump supporter - get him." Oh, the 'system' has failed them??? I suppose more social services are needed, aren't they? more more more... well, its wakey time in the west... every country in the west is broke, because because it has borrowed itself into dis=existence... sometimes for wars (USA) but for others, mostly because the amount of government borrow and spend couldn't be covered even if taxes went to 100%.

Mimsy

@FabiBean ... a lot of them are. The left is rioting and burning and people are being attacked, violently, for different political opinions. People are also being attacked for being white... even when they are mentally disabled (I trust you;ve heard of that) and murder and rampage IS happening inChicago because people did;t get the 'outcome' they wanted.

Mimsy

there is enough treachery, hatred violence absurdity in the average human being to supply any given army on any given day and the best at murder are those who preach against it and the best at hate are those who preach love and the best at war finally are those who preach peace those who preach god, need god those who preach peace do not have peace those who preach peace do not have love beware the preachers beware the knowers beware those who are always reading books beware those who either detest poverty or are proud of it beware those quick to praise for they need praise in return beware those who are quick to censor they are afraid of what they do not know beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone beware the average man the average woman beware their love, their love is average seeks average but there is genius in their hatred there is enough genius in their hatred to kill you to kill anybody not wanting solitude not understanding solitude they will attempt to destroy anything that differs from their own not being able to create art they will not understand art they will consider their failure as creators only as a failure of the world not being able to love fully they will believe your love incomplete and then they will hate you and their hatred will be perfect -Charles Bukowsi

Arkady

Re economic outcomes, people should remember to to distinguish between the post-referendum outcome (which is based largely on public confidence) and the actual post-Brexit outcome, which we won't know for a couple of years (but which increasingly looks like a total shit-show). A lot of leavers are crowing because the predictions of a clear post-referendum downturn haven't turned out to be entirely accurate. But that's largely because the majority don't believe the predictions and so have continued to spend regardless (often on credit). Yet the evidence is pointing to the medium term worst-case scenarios actually being born out - banks are already looking at moving sticks, inflation is rising, and some sort of cliff-edge where business is whacked with tariffs or non-tariff barriers to the UK's biggest economic partner looks increasingly likely.

Mimsy

... it won't be Brexit that tanks the system... but 45 years of endless borrowing ad infinitum. We are at the end of the socialist experiment. It has spent itself into dis-existence. No one can actually tell me that this debt riddled land is EVER going to pay back what it owes? It can't. Default has to happen. ... or devaluation to nothingness... which is already underway. The EU is a disaster for one simple reason (amongst others) - the idiots in charge never consolidated their national debts before they embarked on their flagship project called the Euro. One currency 17+ different national debt structures. I think a 6 year old could figure out that would't work. And this is something people want to be a part of ???

krappyrubsnif

The basic, fundamental, core, upstream problem is that for the past 40 years most of the world has been run by capitalism. And capitalism is broken. Not fit for purpose. Doesn't work. But nobody knows what to do instead.

Explains everything - rust belt, Trump, environmental collapse, sixth extinction, Brexit, demise of the Labour Party, collapse of the left internationally, Putin, courgette crisis, Sherlock. Well, maybe not Sherlock.

Oh and in Britain, there has scarcely been any innovative or progressive thinking for 20 years. We are stuck on a conceptual and political tramline.

Arkady

@Mimsy - the problem with that argument is that our debt-GDP ratio is actually low by historic standards. There certainly are issues around debt (especially consumer debt) but it isn't a structural or systemic explanation. And it's certainly not a socialist issue - capitalism has always relied on debt and fiat money. http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5376/economics/this-time-is-different-a-history-of-debt/ @krappyrubsnif is closer to the mark. More narrowly I think one can also say that capitalism has had some incredible successes, but in recent decades inequality has been allowed to grow so much - and sidelined so much as an ideological issue - that people have have an underlying feeling of unfairness that they pin on anything but the actual cause - hence growing nationalism, anti-immigrant sentiment, and scepticism about the international order. Paul Mason's book Postcapitalism is well worth reading for a good summary of that and a decent stab at predicting the future - and suggesting good alternatives.

Arkady

@mimsy - also worth noting that the UK vetoes a fiscal union for the Eurozone early in the Maastricht negotiations, as we were worried about the rest of the EU caucusing against us. The EU proceeded on the assumption that a fiscal union would inevitably follow the currency union in due course. Sadly that didn't happen before The City and Wall Street dealt the global economy a crippling blow that the Eurozone was hard-pushed to withstand. Given that history the UK isn't really in a position to point fingers at the competence of others.