Article 50

grenners · January 2017

Arkady we do not need professionally trained politicians. We need more people who had jobs in business or public sector or wherever and are not involved in politics as a profession.

Arkady · January 2017

By getting rid of the EU's regulatory safety net in order to cater to new rushed and lopsided trade deals with Trump et al, Brexit will worsen things, yes. The poorest will suffer most. As becomes more clear every day, we won't be getting a Corbynista left-wing Brexit, or even a centrist one. We'll get a neo-liberal one. Ian Dunt's book on this is well worth reading (though maybe avoid Amazon...): https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexit-Happens-Everything-Britains-Divorce/dp/0995497826

grenners · January 2017

Because Juncker is holding back an EU review into the tax policies of Luxembourg where Amazon are based?

Arkady · January 2017

You can be properly educated and trained and still come from all walks of life. I fully agree we need to broaden the demographic from which politicians are drawn. We especially need far more people with scientific training, both natural and social. My point is that the average person on the street is not qualified to make complex political decisions, anymore than I am qualified to make decisions about the most appropriate system of crop rotation or efficient fuels for moon rockets. One needs a fundamental understanding of economics, philosophy and the constitution for a start, three subjects that are not taught (or barely taught) during mandatory education. Your point about Junker is simply a non-sequitur.

grenners · January 2017

Sorry explain why my Amazon point not relevant?

Arkady · January 2017

You rightly criticise Junker. But Junker is just one man, he's not the institutions, let alone the EU's social dimension that helps to defend our rights and standards. Junker may be a man of the right, but he accepts that social dimension (as Tories accepted the welfare state in the 50-70s). So criticising something that Junker did as PM of Luxembourg is not relevant to my point about the protection provided by the EU. Anyway, Junker is head of the Commission because the majority of people in the majority of EU states voted for conservative governments who then appointed him. If most people elected left-wing governments instead we would have a different man.

grenners · January 2017

Whether he is left or right doesn't matter because he believes in more Europe which some of us do not.

miss annie · January 2017

I don't think we should ever have another referendum about anything. Many who voted to leave the EU didn't even trouble themselves to find out what it is. When my glorious reign dawns people will be IQ tested before they are allowed to vote at all.

Maximus · January 2017

Assuming smart people make smart decisions?

miss annie · January 2017

No, they often make stupid decisions too but IQ tests would be a good filter.

Papa · January 2017

@Ali the point of the referendum was abundantly clear to the vast majority of people who voted in it. Choose Leave or Remain and we enacted the answer. @Arkady, I get what you are saying about a higher threshold but see my point above and the fact that what is called Hard Brexit is basically just the act of actually leaving the EU. I also think it's worth noting that if people had been told that this clear cut referendum choice was supposedly advisory only, and / or you got another vote on whether you liked the terms, you may actually have found that Leave won by a much greater margin. The sheer binding finality of the question is likely to have swayed more people towards voting to Remain and keep the status quo than it did towards Leave. I imagine it is possible to find a vast amount of behavioural research and theory that backs that suggestion up. Which is why that dumbo Cameron thought he was safe in calling it in the first place and why Project Fear was used rather than what would have been the far better Project Point Out All the Good Things the EU does, Debunk the Myths, and Appeal to People's Hopes.

grenners · January 2017

Only the middle class urban liberals voted overwhelmingly to remain.

HolbornFox · January 2017

Dont forget though that everyone who didn't vote would have definitely totally 100% voted to remain, coz they aint stupid like, they just don't vote.

Arkady · January 2017

" the fact that what is called Hard Brexit is basically just the act of actually leaving the EU." This is simply and very obviously untrue. Several countries are members of the single market and/or the customs union without being members of the EU. Brexit scenario planning is a bit part of my day job, and we've examined the whole spectrum of options from EEA membership through to falling back on the WTO rules. I must have written tens of thousands of words in papers on this very subject. The only reason that the 'hard' end of the spectrum has become inevitable is because Theresa May has decided that restricting free movement must become the top priority. But that was not on the ballot paper, and polling doesn't come close to supporting it. While a big percentage of people would like to see free movement reformed they won't support that if it hits their wallet. "I also think it's worth noting that if people had been told that this clear cut referendum choice was supposedly advisory only, and / or you got another vote on whether you liked the terms, you may actually have found that Leave won by a much greater margin." Yes I think that might be true.

HolbornFox · January 2017

If they had a referendum on the terms of brexit (sensible) i dread to think what the tabloids would have to say about it, i get the feeling Mrs May is having a 'Brown Bounce' moment at the minute.

I spoke to a couple of people the other day who said they have not seen any change since we have left the EU, that was a surreal moment.

Papa · January 2017

@Arkady You have a point, in my line of work we've done lots of looking at this too. But my point was what you are saying is not what most commentators mean when they say Hard Brexit, what they mean is leaving the EU rather than remaining a backdoor member. I think that Theresa May is a lot smarter than most people give her credit for. I wouldn't be surprised if it eventually turns out that she's letting the chief Brexiteers hoist themselves, allowing the Old Europe EU states a back door to some limits on freedom of movement of people, and we end up with that reformed freedom of movement you mention and the UK becoming an EEA or equivalent member. Wishful thinking perhaps, but we can but hope.

grenners · January 2017

If the EU bullies us and tries to make an example out of us then I think it will backfire on them and populists in Europe will take advantage. So those in the EU should be able to effectively reform it so that it is not such a rigid model. If we get a wishful thinking type deal then of course some other countries might want that. I think the EU needs to evolve and examine it's principles.

Arkady · January 2017

Papa L "But my point was what you are saying is not what most commentators mean when they say Hard Brexit, what they mean is leaving the EU rather than remaining a backdoor member." Not too sure what you mean by this old boy. I agree that there's lots of terminological chaos, but 'hard Brexit' is surely usually used to mean leaving the Single Market as well as the EU institutions, i.e. not being an EEA member like Norway or having bilateral agreements like Switzerland - both options having been mooted during the campaign. Even if only a tiny fraction of those who voted Leave would prefer the status quo to leaving the Single Market then there is no majority for Leave. Hence the legitimacy of a vote on the final deal.

grenners · January 2017

Arkady it sounds like you are clinging on so desperately looking for any hope of this being overturned? Hard Brexit is just a term which may well evolve or disappear as we get into this. May's position is posturing before the negotiations start. Remember she was pro-remain! And in the end there will be a deal or no deal vote in parliament. This thread started out on making sure A50 gets voted down or in my case mot voted down. People will be very disheartened if there is another referendum and whatever the result it is "advisory".

Arkady · January 2017

I would like to remain in the EU, though I don't expect we will. My arguments, though, are not dependent on that preference. It is objectively true that a majority of voters may prefer the status quo to the end deal - any democrat should support a consultation on the final deal. You have yet to address that point. "Hard Brexit is just a term which may well evolve or disappear" - as discussed above, 'Hard Brexit' is usually used to refer to leaving the Single Market and/or the customs union. That's a real and solid concept, regardless of the terminology. I'm not sure what your final sentence means, I'm afraid. Referendums are always advisory in the UK unless it expressly says so in the enabling Act, because that's how our constitution works (ref., Bagehot).

grenners · January 2017

I think May said that the deal would go through parliament. Fine. We have no idea how flexible the EU will be yet I like to think they will see this as an opportunity to reform. (Victor Orban recently said that european federalism is an illusion and that the EU should be nation states cooperating not a superstate. He said the EU is enslaved to a utopia). However, as we will have triggered A50 by then I doubt the status quo will be an option. It will be cold brexit (has that one been used yet?) or some kind of deal tbc which may be awful or good. Whether or not a new referendum is required I will hold my judgement, I hope not.

Arkady · January 2017

Well you're now quoting Victor Orban, a despicable neofascist. Whether you genuinely think that adds credibility to your argument, or whether you are just trolling, I leave others to judge.

As you your point, it's as yet unclear whether Article 50 is revocable. International law suggests it is, practical politics may differ. But parliament would badly undermine itself in the eyes of the public if it tried to overturn a referendum. If it voted against the final deal then we could expect an early election, which would largely be a judgment on whether the opposition would make a credible government (oh dear) rather than on Brexit.

grenners · January 2017

Regardless of your views Victor Orban he is a European leader and therefore his views are quite important. All the countries get a say right? Over in eastern Europe the people have not been subjected to the same level of political correctness that we have over the years and so they are allowed to say things that our politicians cannot. The fact that you completely discredit him is part of the problem, possible you are as extreme as he is on the other end of the spectrum.

Pembe · January 2017

Depressing discussion. It is completely wrong to say that people in Eastern Europe (meaning Hungary as you are talking about Orban) have greater freedom of speech than the UK. Where on earth are you getting this (mis)information?Since coming to power he has focused on clamping down on freedom of speech, curtailing the independence of the judiciary and closing space for civil society. Let's not throw around Alternative Facts here.

grenners · January 2017

Yes very depressing. Everyone keeps replying to me so it never ends. I'm married to an eastern European. Ukraine. I'm not saying they have greater freedom of speech but that some views are more accepted there in my experience, in my opinion.

maclondon · January 2017

I think everyone should come up with there own 'alternative facts' and the best one wins! My alternative fact is that The EU Referendum was Cameron's attempt at trying to break-up the UK! FACT! (Sadly, this appears to be a distinct possibility)

grenners · January 2017

The left are getting pist off that some right wing media are doing what the guardian and the bbc have been doing for years! Who is going to check that fact?

Ali · January 2017

If Mrs May is smart what is she doing toadying to Trump?

Ali · January 2017

She is also off to see Erdoğan on Saturday. I thought Brexit campaign didn't like Turkey and said 72 Million of it citizens were going to come here if we stayed in the EU. Even before Article 50 we have potentially a real dodgy set of new friends ! Why is she legitimising these people?

krappyrubsnif · January 2017

If it hadn’t been for Brexit and the panic over free market trading, we wouldn’t need to be toadying up to these monsters anyway. The Europeans must be having a good laugh. Instead we’re going round the world cap in hand to several of the most vile would-be dictators of recent times.

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